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e-conomy SEA

Unlocking the $200 billion digital opportunity in

Southeast Asia
Google & Temasek's joint perspectives were developed
using 4 independent data sources

DATA SOURCE DESCRIPTION

Proprietary Query and click data to assess demand by country; internet

1

Google data usage data by country; smartphone penetration by country

Temasek VC and startup activity by country (including number of
deals, exits, size of startups, number of startups by funding
2 stage, etc.)

research

Expert 59 expert interviews (21 startups, 12 VCs, 23 analysts at
leading banks, and 3 industry experts across 6 countries)
3 to validate research findings

interviews

Numerous sources such as Worldbank, UN, EIU,

Secondary Euromonitor, McKinsey, WEF, and government websites

4

data sources were used to calculate economic development indicators

such as population trends, GDP growth, etc.

1
Research scope

Sectors INCLUDED EXCLUDED

3 major sectors: Online spending in sectors
which have not materially been
1. First-hand eCommerce (i.e. disrupted by the internet in
online spend on electronics, SEA, such as:
apparel/clothing, household
goods, food/grocery) 1. Education
2. Entertainment/movies
2. Travel (online spend on 3. Health (insurance, etc.)
hotels, airlines and ride 4. Financial services
hailing)
Second-hand eCommerce
3. Media (online spend on ads purchases
and gaming)

Geographies 6 major SEA countries including Other SEA countries such as
Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar
Philippines, Thailand and
Vietnam

2
Executive summary (1/2)

SEA1 is the world’s fastest growing internet region (~14% 5-year CAGR) with an existing internet user
base of 260m growing to ~480m users by 2020 (~3.8m / month)

Consequently, the SEA1 internet economy2 is expected to grow to ~$200+ billion by 2025; driven mostly
by the growth of first-hand eCommerce market (32% CAGR over next 10 years) followed by online
media (18% CAGR), and online travel (15% CAGR)

The total first-hand eCommerce market in SEA1 is expected to reach ~$88 billion by 2025; significantly
outpacing the growth of offline retail (32% vs. 7% 10-year CAGR) with potential to reach ~$120 billion

3 factors that are unique to SEA1 will drive growth:

• A burgeoning young population with ~70% under the age of 40
• Lack of big-box retail (SEA retail stores per capita ~1/3rd of US); access particularly difficult in remote islands

which are abundant in PH and ID
• Rapidly growing middle-class (forecasted GDP growth of 5.3% over next 10 years)

Number of transactions expected to be biggest growth driver (27% 10-year CAGR), as more people gain
access to the internet and availability of products online increases

All SEA countries are expected to have an eCommerce market >$5b

Online travel (hotels, airlines, and rides) is expected to reach ~$90 billion by 2025 (15% CAGR);

• Hotels + airlines will compose 85% of total online travel market (15% CAGR) or ~$77 billion; Low Cost
Carriers will drive majority of growth due to their prominence in SEA (35% of gross booking vs 13% in rest of
APAC) and higher online penetration (55% vs 35% for regional carriers)

1 includes PH, VN, TH, SG, MY, ID SOURCE: Google, Temasek, World Bank, UN 3
2 includes first-hand eCommerce (apparel, electronics, household goods, food/grocery),

travel (hotels, airlines, ride hailing), and online media (ads


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分享于 2017-10-20 12:47:37

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